Private poll shows Hakeem Jeffries with 50-point lead over Chi Ossé in hypothetical congressional primary

New York City Council Member Chi Ossé, who has reportedly been in talks about launching a primary challenge against Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, took the stage at a Zohran Mamdani rally Monday night, saying “after we win in November, the work does not end. If anything, that's when it begins.” If he was talking about unseating the House minority leader in 2026, it seems there would indeed be a lot of work to do. 

Internal polling shows that Jeffries is well-liked in his congressional district, and that Ossé is still pretty unknown – despite his social media virality. According to the poll, 74% of voters approve of the job Jeffries is doing, 69% view him favorably and 69% said they would “probably” or “definitely” vote to reelect him. In a head-to-head matchup, the poll found that 72% would vote for Jeffries, while 21% would vote for Ossé. But Ossé has room to grow. Half of voters polled said they had never heard of him. 

The poll was shared with City & State on the condition that we not name the entity that commissioned it. It was conducted by public opinion researcher Nancy Zdunkewicz’s firm Z to A Research, which specializes in text and online polling. It included 371 registered Democrats who are likely to vote in the 2026 midterms and was taken between Sept. 15 and 20. It has a margin of error of 5 points. It was not intended to be public. 

The results were broken down into two scenarios: a “typical turnout scenario,” in which 65% of voters surveyed were over 50, and a “surge turnout scenario” with more younger and “progressive” voters. Ossé, who recently joined the New York City chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America, fared slightly better in the surge scenario, narrowing Jeffries’ lead to 41 points.

Axios reported last week that Ossé has had conversations about primarying Jeffries, but the Gen-Z City Council member denied he’s planning to run, telling the outlet in a text: "All I have to say is that it would take a very dire situation in order for me to even consider spending the rest of my 20s in dc." 

The poll also asked voters to consider matchups between Jeffries and democratic socialist state Sen. Jabari Brisport and between Jeffries and Assembly Member Monique Chandler-Waterman. Both lawmakers also trailed the incumbent congressional representative by at least 50 points in the typical voter turnout scenario. 

“Sometimes you learn new things, and sometimes you confirm conventional wisdom,” Zdunkewicz said. “As you can see by the results, Leader Jeffries is still the most popular leader in the district, even with many talented politicians waiting in the wings.”

Jeffries’ campaign said they weren’t behind the poll. “Leader Jeffries is focused on battling Donald Trump, ending the Republican shutdown of the federal government and addressing the crushing GOP healthcare crisis,” Jeffries’ spokesperson Justin Chermol said in a statement.Ossé and Chandler-Waterman did not respond to requests for comment. Brisport has previously denied that he has intentions of challenging Jeffries. “We’re at a crucial moment in the fight to build Universal Child Care in New York and I’ll be running for reelection to the State Senate where I carry the bill and can continue that work,” Brisport said in a statement. 

The district spans a large swath of Central and southern Brooklyn, including parts of gentrifying Bedford-Stuyvesant as well as East New York, Canarsie, Sheepshead Bay and Coney Island. Mamdani carried the plurality-Black district in the June Democratic primary with 46% of the vote compared to Andrew Cuomo’s 38%. Kamala Harris carried it in the 2024 presidential election with 71% of the vote. The poll found that Mamdani voters were split between Jeffries and Ossé, with 49% supporting Jeffries and 46% backing Ossé. Among Cuomo voters, 93% would vote for Jeffries and 0% would vote for Ossé.

The poll also tested whether exposure to candidate biographies and negative messaging about Jeffries affected the results. After voters were shown portions of the biographies of Jeffries, Ossé and Brisport, Jeffries’ advantage barely shifted. His lead held even after voters were given messages that Jeffries isn’t standing up against Trump, that he’s beholden to corporate donors, that he’s too conservative, that he has so far declined to endorse Mamdani and that he has been on the wrong side of the war in Palestine. After those messages were shared, he maintained a 40-point lead over Ossé and a 47-point lead over Brisport in the “typical” voter scenario.

Jeffries is in a solid position compared to, for example, Rep. Dan Goldman, who had just a 48% favorability rating and trailed city Comptroller Brad Lander by double digits in a hypothetical matchup, according to a September poll from Data for Progress. Though it’s unclear whether Lander will challenge Goldman, democratic socialist City Council Member Alexa Avilés has been speaking with the DSA about a potential run against Goldman.