Actually, the LIRR strike may not be that bad for Hochul politically

An election-year public union strike is probably many governors’ worst nightmare. Faced with the first Long Island Rail Road strike in three decades, shutting down the nation’s largest commuter rail system, Gov. Kathy Hochul is surely no different in that regard. And she and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, her likely Republican opponent as she seeks reelection in November, are both playing the political blame game. But Hochul’s historically poor performance on Long Island combined with existing ire from transit unions means it’s a low bar for her to clear if she wants to come out of the commuting crisis on her feet. 

Blakeman wasted no time over the weekend to attack Hochul over the strike, which began Saturday at midnight. “Both Republican and Democrat administrations had labor peace with our workers, and let me say this to you, when you look at Kathy Hochul's track record when it comes to labor relations, she is the worst governor in the history of New York State,” Blakeman said in Long Beach on Sunday.

In response, the Hochul campaign took equal aim at Blakeman. “While Governor Hochul is focused on affordability, protecting commuters, and getting trains running again, ‘100% MAGA’ Blakeman is doing what he always does: rooting for dysfunction and higher costs so he can score political points with Donald Trump,” Hochul spokesperson Sarafina Chitika said in a statement. "Blakeman spent years jacking up property taxes and making Long Islanders’ lives more expensive – New Yorkers can’t afford his leadership, and neither can his own constituents.”

Although Hochul has indeed had a somewhat rocky relationship with a number of major unions in the past thanks to her original pick to lead the state Court of Appeals, she has largely mended those fences. That hasn’t included influential transit unions like Transport Workers United Local 100, which has been locked in lengthy and contentious contract negotiations with the governor. While the union isn’t one of the five representing the striking LIRR workers, it’s a bellwether transit union with an outspoken international president in John Samuelsen. 

And Samuelsen hasn’t been shy about his – and his members’ – disdain for the governor.  He has made clear that his union, which represents many subway and bus workers in New York City, would not back Hochul this year for reelection. “Gov. Hochul is a straight-up enemy of the TWU and a disaster for blue-collar New York,” he wrote in a letter to members reported by the New York Post in February. “The International TWU will not just go along to get along. We will not support her simply because she’s a ‘Democrat.’”

The strike also primarily impacts Long Island commuters, a voting base with whom Hochul has significant ground to make up. She lost Nassau County by over 10 percentage points and Suffolk County by 17 percentage points in 2022 when she ran against  Republican Long Islander Lee Zeldin for governor. In Blakeman, Hochul has yet another challenger from the island. And Republicans continue to have a stronghold in both counties, even as Democrats flipped Nassau’s swing congressional districts in 2024.

But Larry Levy, executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University, said the strike could turn out to either be a boon or a bust for Hochul depending on how long it lasts, and how it resolves. “If she is perceived as handling the situation weakly, indecisively, incompetently or (in) any way negatively, it can hurt her narrative as a tough leader … looking out for the pocketbook (LIRR) commuters and other New Yorkers,” Levy said in a text message to City & State. “If she is seen as handling things well, particularly a settlement that doesn’t look like she’s caving into demands of the unions … she will improve her political standing.” But he added it’s too soon to tell for now.

Hochul told reporters on Sunday that she doesn’t want to “divert this into a campaign event” – but that didn’t stop her from laying the blame for the strike squarely at the feet of President Donald Trump for cutting off mediation late last year. “Let me be clear: This strike would not have been possible if the Trump administration had not taken the highly unusual step last fall of releasing labor unions from mediation,” she said. “Unfortunately for our commuters, the direct consequence of this action is the strike we have today.”

The last time the LIRR went on strike, then-Gov. Mario Cuomo lost his bid for a fourth term to George Pataki – the last Republican to hold statewide office in New York. The history looms large today. “What’s clear is that both Hochul and Blakeman are trying to spin the situation to fit ongoing narratives,” Levy said. “Results of the outcome (of) this tit for tat will continue even after the settlement.”

But Democrats still seem optimistic that the strike doesn’t serve as a harbinger that 2026 will be a repeat of 1994. “I don’t know if that was what caused Mario Cuomo to lose the governorship,” state Senate Deputy Majority Leader Mike Gianaris told reporters in Albany on Monday. “Coincidence,” he added.